2026 Academy Awards Predictions

What was coasting along to be a fairly safe and predictable awards season that pitted the big critical players of Sinners and One Battle After Another against one another at the top of the perch for the technical and biggest prizes of the lot. Besides the top acting categories, Hamnet and Marty Supreme are expected to pick up potential crumbs not devoured by the other two. But as things looked to be settled upon who was guaranteed winners in their respective categories in a two-horse, hell, four-horse race, things quickly changed.

Things were said, said-said things were documented - chopped and slapped together that either kept the context or threw it out altogether to create a unique collage of potential smear campaigns, self-sabotage, and potentially giving a leg-up to competitors in their race to the finish line. Opera-gate or Ballet-gate, whichever art form your allegiance lies with, had Chalamet’s Oscar hopes thrown into serious doubt. And although his comments appeared to have been made, or at least had gone viral, after voting had closed, the sentiment going into the second half of the awards season post-Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice wins had felt like it was beginning to sour towards Chalamet. At one point, it appeared that no one could stop him, but true to his character of Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme, it appears as though he has embodied the character in the final weeks leading up to the Oscars - saying the wrong things at the wrong time, suddenly feeling disingenuous as his desire to win an Oscar is frying his brain. All that aside, I still love him as an actor, and it’s an outrageous performance, but unfortunately, this apparent desperation to “be one of the greats”, as mentioned in his SAG win last year for A Complete Unknown, has left a not-so-favourable opinion of him from people. = Is it with the old guard voters? The new? Or both? Time will tell come Oscar night if he truly did sink his campaign, handing the momentum to Michael B. Jordan, who shocked us all by winning the SAG. But more on that later.

I do have a feeling we will see a major controversy on the night, and I’m hoping that’s not the case as we want to celebrate deserving winners and the stories they tell. Slapgate a few years ago and the Moonlight flub unfortunately overshadowed both awards ceremonies, so let’s hope it’s not the case again.

A big thing this year is that the Academy has now made it compulsory for voters to have watched every film in each category in order to be allowed to vote per category. Apparently, it tracks links having been watched or not, and if it was watched outside of the portal, they’d have to provide receipts as to when and where they watched it. I don’t know how they can enforce this rule though, as users could literally just play the films and let it run down as they do other things. Which in itself is maddening. I’ve read that older voters who are prone to tech illiteracy have been struggling with the system (lolz boomers amiright), so it could possibly affect the voting turnout as we see new voters getting younger and more interested in seeing everything. But this is honestly just dumb speculation on my part.

I know it’s silly to care about awards that decide what is objectively the best based on subjective tastes of its voters, but I still have fun with the Oscars every year. Even if the final picks piss me off, it’s fun seeing your favorite films and artists winning things because it then justifies your tastes and opinions. It’s like watching your favorite sports team win things, and I like that. So yeah. 

Enough waffling. Once again, here are my predictions of who will win, could win, and should win. For the first time ever, I have managed to see every single one of these films in every category, so yay me, I guess. These predictions are based on precursor awards and general gut feeling.  Off we go…

Best Picture

The Nominees

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

What will win: Sinners/One Battle After Another* (this prediction could change depending on two awards, more down below about that)

What could win: One Battle After Another

What should win: One Battle After Another

What should be here: It Was Just an Accident

For a long time, it appeared OBAA was the runaway favorite. A critical and filmmaker darling, what many would consider to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s crowning achievement and a startlingly relevant film for our time, especially in the grand context of ICE in America. But there’s been a shift in the sand, an electricity in the air that has swayed over to Sinners, much in the same vein as Parasite. Although Parasite was a hit with both critics and fans as well as winning the coveted Palm d’Or at Cannes (the festival’s best film prize), Sam Mendes’ WWI drama 1917 was the dominant force all season, winning the biggest precursor awards in each of its guilds. But at the SAG awards that year, we saw Parasite shock everyone with a best ensemble win, which helps your chances at taking home the top prize at the Oscars. Now, although the actors’ guild is the largest voting body in the Academy, winning best ensemble isn’t necessarily the biggest predictor of who wins best picture. We have seen many years where its winner doesn’t go on to take best picture. Last year, for example, Conclave won but ended up losing to Anora on Oscar night. Anora won the PGA (Producers Guild Awards). So let’s look at the numbers then. OBAA took the PGA, and Sinners, (un)surprisingly, took the SAG ensemble prize. The former, historically, has proven to be the more accurate predictor for best picture. But as mentioned before, this year feels different. The buzz in the room, the genuine love that was felt for Sinners winning, was the same feeling I got when Parasite won. Something just feels different.

And although I prefer OBAA, I won’t be mad at Sinners winning. It’s a big melting pot of genres that is ultimately a musical disguised as an action horror, which, as we know, the Academy tends to be allergic to horror. It’s also not just a film about race as people may think on the outset, but that of both the survival and erasure of cultural identity and how our stories— our voices— are so important in making sure they live on. It’s a film that connected with so many people because of this and reminded us just why going to the movies and seeing original stories is so special and so very important. But because of the horror element, its deeper meaning could potentially fly over voters’ heads who don’t seem to take horror seriously at all. But as said before, there’s a Parasite feeling in the air (and that had a horror element at one point), and I just see the timelessness of it to push it over the edge. Which I think will happen. It may not be my favorite film of the night, but I’ll gladly welcome more horror films taking home top prizes at the Oscars.

I loved where Sinners took me, but OBAA would be my pick. It’s the return of the great American epic that, like Sinners, blended so many genres, tropes, and stories into one multilayered onion that feels fresh and keeps giving the more you peel. It’s a buddy comedy, a family drama, a road movie, a paranoid thriller, a white-knuckled actioner, and hell, it’s even a western— a fiery indictment of America as it finds itself placed firmly in the crosshairs of white supremacists in the ruins of a revolution that has all but seemingly failed.  It’s thrilling, clever, tight filmmaking that never lets up, dragging you across the finish line in what feels like 90 minutes instead of 2 hours 42 minutes. It is still pegged as the favorite for best picture by pundits, and when you look at its timely relevance in regards to what is happening right now not only in America with ICE, but the world over with fascist nationalism and anti-immigrant notions on the rise. OBAA is most definitely the film for the climate right now, and the Academy could look to pick it as the winner as a snapshot of where we are now in 2026.

They’re simply the two most critically acclaimed films of the year, and with how things have gone over the years, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if this award is shared. However, it is extremely unlikely as it has never happened with best picture and has only happened a total of six times over its lifetime, the most famous being that of Katharine Hepburn and Barbara Streisand sharing best actress in 1969’s edition.

*But the most important categories that actually boost your chance of winning are the screenplay award and, surprisingly (to most people at least), editing. If you win writing and editing, your chances of winning best picture are massive. I called last year that if Conclave wins editing and adapted screenplay, it’ll win best picture. But Anora won editing along with its original screenplay, and it ended up winning best picture. And it’s the same situation here, both screenplays in different categories and both in editing. 

Best Director

The Nominees

Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)

Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Who could win: Ryan Coogler

Who should win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Who should be here: Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident)

This is one of the most stacked categories. Every director here is worthy of their nominations for sterling work that ranges from the highly intimate to bombastic crowd-pleasing set-pieces. But it appears to only be between Coogler and PTA.

Paul Thomas Anderson has won literally all the precursor awards leading up to this night (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, DGA), so this one appears to be a lock. But don’t write off Coogler just yet. His blending of genre and story could be enough to convince voters that they would pick a Black director to finally win the award (it has never happened before). But in saying that, PTA is so highly regarded by filmmakers and viewers alike that they would feel like it’s time to finally give him an award he has been deserving of for so long (as of 2026, 14 nominations in total), one he should’ve (arguably) won for There Will Be Blood (2007). A legacy win? Sure. Maybe. But thankfully it would be for a piece of work that deserves it.

In a perfect world , the award will be shared between PTA and Coogler.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

The Nominees

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)

Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)

Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Who will win: Jessie Buckley

Who could win: Rose Byrne

Who should win: Jessie Buckley

Who should be here: Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)

It’s rare when a lead acting category is locked so early on, whereas it’s always the supporting categories which are determined the earliest, winning every single precursor. But this year is different, proving to be the easiest certainty of the entire night with a deserved win for Jesse Buckley that will go down as an all-time great performance where you feel every bit of joy, heartache, grief, and eventual acceptance that Buckley drags you along for. It’s simply an unbelievable work. There was a strange instance where there seemed to be an attempt to shake her from the top spot following comments made about her husband and his cat, demanding an ultimatum of either picking her or the cat (of course, with the clip and quotes being decontextualized). But it wasn’t and isn’t going to work. No one is beating her for the win.

Any other year, it’d be Rose Byrne’s for the taking. And if I Had Legs was more palatable in terms of overall feeling, story, and character (it’s brilliant but an unpleasant, exhausting watch), it may have stood a better chance at taking on Hamnet. It’s an equally extraordinary work of a mother who just needs a break. Stressful and entirely too relatable and a career best for Byrne. Just unfortunate to be up against Buckley this time round.

At this rate, Emma Stone has a retainer à la Meryl Streep at the Oscars, which you know, is completely valid at this point. But I’m happiest to see Renate Reinsve here. A wonderful talent whom I felt should’ve won at the 2022 Oscars (wasn’t even nominated) for her lead turn in Joachim Trier’s last film, The Worst Person in the World (my favorite film of 2022). 

The strangest nomination in this category is that of Kate Hudson. She’s fine in Song Sung Blue, and the film is just fine. Considering who was left out, especially considering how Seyfried delivers a career-best performance in the odd but completely hypnotic musical The Testament of Ann Lee, JLaw also giving arguably her greatest performance as a woman dealing with postpartum depression, and then Chase Infiniti became an instant star as the focal point in One Battle After Another, playing a resourceful teen having to escape the clutches of a terrifying Sean Penn. 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

The Nominees

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

Who will win: Michael B. Jordan 

Who could win: Timothée Chalamet 

Who should win: Timothée Chalamet

Who should be here: Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)

As mentioned before, this appeared to have been Chalamet’s award much like how actress was for Buckley. But as we got deeper into awards season, the consensus around Chalamet appeared to sour. From saying things at the wrong time to overall demeanor coming across as arrogant, Chalamet’s popularity has waned since. It also doesn’t help when his desire to win an Oscar comes with a sense of desperation. It’s ironic because his campaign has appeared to mirror that of his character in Marty Supreme - an unlikeable character whose arrogance drives him forward, eventually leading to bad decision after bad decision as he arrives at desperate measures to claim his goal. OK, maybe I’m exaggerating here, but his comments about Opera and Ballet definitely didn’t help. And even if it did take place after voting closed, it just amplified the sentiment around him these days. Personally, I’m still a huge fan of him as a performer and his portrayal of said-despicable shithead in Marty Supreme remains my favorite performance by a male actor of the category. Another thing to note is that no one appeared to campaign harder this awards season than Chalamet with A24 behind him. Everyone else appeared to just be happy to be there, especially Jordan, so it would sting particularly hard if this ends up being fruitless.

So has Chalamet all but lost this race on his own shoelaces? Not quite. It still remains a category that is legitimately too tight to call between him and Jordan. Michael B. Jordan appeared to be the least likely winner in this category until a week ago when he surprisingly won at the SAGs to a roaring room. Remember that buzz in the air I was talking about? Yeah, it’s shifted to Jordan because of it, despite not having won anything on the road. Chalamet has two (Critics’ Choice & Golden Globe), Wagner Moura has one (Golden Globe), Jordan has jumped in and according to a lot of pundits, is now the odds-on favorite to take the prize. It’s a good performance that has him playing twins. And although I wasn’t left overly impressed by it, it’s one that improves on each viewing. However, I still find it to be the least memorable performance in an already stacked category. Any other year it would’ve been Ethan Hawke, and it’s unfortunate how no one is talking about what is one of the most heartbreaking male performances of the year and a career-high for Hawke as real-life lyricist Lorenz Hart. But as mentioned before, the response to his win at the SAGs could be a good signifier that he will take the award home come Sunday night.

Like the actress category, just too many good lead performances were destined to be left out, and it sucks in particular that the Jesse Plemons agonizing turn opposite Emma Stone in Bugonia was overlooked. Then you have the nuanced grief-stricken everyman at the centre of Train Dreams in Joel Edgerton, whose presence completely dictates the emotional impact that Train Dreams bestows on its viewer. Plemons and Edgerton have quietly been dependable for many years as among the finest actors working today. Although they have both been nominated once each in the past, snubbing them on the best performances of their career proves the point at just how underrated these phenomenal talents appear to be. Even amongst their peers.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role 

The Nominees

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)

Amy Madigan (Weapons)

Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

Who will win: Amy Madigan

Who could win: Teyana Taylor

Who should win: Amy Madigan

Who should be here: Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked)

As mentioned earlier, every year the earliest locked categories are the supporting actor roles. These ones often only have one winner all awards season, so it’s unprecedented that it’s been so competitive. Where lead acting categories have been closer and more unpredictable over the years, this time the lead actress category was the most consistent lock thanks to Jessie Buckley’s dominance. Let’s break down the wins here…Amy Madigan won at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the SAGs, Teyana Taylor won at the Globes, and Wunmi Mosaku won at the BAFTAs. Mathematically and historically, fate appears to be on Madigan’s side. And if Jordan’s win is anything to go by, horror movies winning Oscars, especially acting statues, is most welcome. 

The notable snubs here include the outstanding Odessa A’Zion as Rachel, a familiar fling for Marty Mauser who serves as a reminder of one of the many responsibilities he refuses to confront. And the other is Ariana Grande, who proved to be one of the brightest stars in the conclusion to the Wicked musical saga. The former is definitely the one who should’ve been here if anyone.

The potential spoiler is a toss-up between Taylor and Mosaku, both delivering different types of leverage to the worlds of their stories that both upend the safety of their characters or nurture them back to safety. But in yet another extremely strong category, Madigan is as deserving as each of the nominees here. Her character has already become an iconic horror villain, and seeing as supporting actors rarely lose the Oscar following a SAG win, it will be Madigan to take it.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The Nominees

Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)

Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Who will win: Sean Penn

Who could win: Stellan Skarsgård/Delroy Lindo

Who should win: Stellan Skarsgård

Who should be here: Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Jack O’Connell (Sinners).

Like the supporting actress category, this is one that’s been unpredictable throughout the season, unlike every other year. And Delroy Lindo’s nomination further proves just how uncertain this category remains despite Sean Penn now being cemented as the favorite. Jacob Elordi won the Critics’ Choice, Skarsgård won the Globe, and Penn won both the BAFTA and the SAG. Mathematically, like Madigan, Penn is the favorite, especially with that SAG win, which, as we said before, is usually a sign, sealed and delivered for the Oscar win (at least for supporting actors, not so much lead). However, Lindo’s surprise nomination here, the only one he has received all awards season, could prove to be the wild card here. Another dependable performer who can chew the scenery as well as anyone else, Lindo is a beloved figure, and with the overwhelming support he received after the BAFTAs shit show, voters may continue to support him by giving him an overdue prize. One with which he should’ve received, in the very least, for Da 5 Bloods. But a win here would feel like a blatant legacy win à la Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Initially, Elordi had a surprise boost to his campaign with the early win as Frankenstein’s monster, but that momentum was short-lived as it changed hands to who was always predicted to be the eventual favorites. It’s still an outstanding performance that shows how good he is, and I’m glad he found a spot in here.

Academy voters tend to love scene chewers for the supporting categories, and boy does Penn chew the shit out of every scene he’s in as the film’s primary villain in Colonel Lockjaw. But the winner in my opinion should be Stellan, and it could very well end up being him. Like Lindo, he’s become a Hollywood staple, another dependable performer who elevates every scene he’s in. It all depends on what the voters got out of each of these performances, and for me, his nuance and delicacy in Sentimental Value would be my pick. It’s a role that could resonate with voters considering he plays a filmmaker using his craft as a means to confront the pains of his past and converse those said pains in order to repair his relationship with his daughters. It’s a beautiful performance that is the most grounded in reality of all the above here. Statistically, Penn is the sure bet here, but if voters remember his recent disdain for awards and particularly the Oscars (despite having two of them), they might decide to give it to someone else instead with either Lindo or Skarsgård being the recipients of it. Let’s go Skarsgård.

Big snubs here are the obvious ones with Paul Mescal, who manages to absorb and eventually mirror the grief of losing a child opposite his scene partner in the magnificent Jessie Buckley. But the one nominee I would have loved to have seen would’ve been that of Jacobi Jupe, the namesake of Hamnet who delivers one of the greatest child actor performances I have ever seen - one just as devastating (if more so) than that of Buckley and Mescal who are left to deal with the aftermath.

And then another snub is the villain of Sinners played by Jack O’Connell, one of the star players in Sinners that ties the many themes together in Coogler’s vision. A tragic villain whose desire to communicate and be with his ancestors has intentions to be quite noble in uniting everyone together (“We want equality”), but effectively erases the cultural identity of the people he is acquiring, especially as it’s against their free will. It’s a role only Jack O’Connell could’ve played - adding yet another horror menace to his already impressive Rolodex within the genre.

Best Casting

The Nominees

Sinners

One Battle After Another

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

The Secret Agent

What will win: Sinners

What could win: One Battle After Another

What should win: Marty Supreme

What should be here: The Long Walk

This is a brand new category at the Oscars and it'll be interesting to see how voters go for this going forward. Casting directors are often misunderstood in terms of what they actually bring to the table. They essentially get the band together, playing a huge part in selecting casts that will not only work for the directors' vision, but what works best for the film through chemistry reads, etc. All the above are fine examples of amazing casting as they're all ensemble pieces with each performer perfectly picked for their role. Voters may just see this as a best ensemble award as well, which is fair, so seeing as Sinners won Best Ensemble at the SAGs, I can see this winning the category. My pick would be Marty Supreme though. It's large odd mix of non-actors working so seamlessly together thanks to Josh Safdie's experience of working with non-actors. But we're talking about guys who appeared in viral videos once, a shark from shark tank, la egendary film director Abel Ferreira and Tyler the Creator.

I was a huge fan of dystopian survival thriller drama The Long Walk. That cast was one of my favourites of last year. Each actor perfectly cast in their roles that allowed everyone to showcase their talents as opposed to just Cooper Hoffman and David Jonsson leading the entire show. Glad it got the Robert Altman award at the Indie Spirit Awards, which celebrates the best ensemble. And it's the power of a good casting director that allows casts like this and the above come together to make your film as special as it can be.

Best International Feature

The Nominees

The Secret Agent (Brazil)

It Was Just an Accident (France)

Sentimental Value (Norway)

Sirāt (Spain)

The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

What will win: Sentimental Value

What could win: The Secret Agent

What should win: It Was Just an Accident

What should be here: No Other Choice (South Korea)

This, in my opinion, is the hardest-hitting category this year. Hell, it’s one category that is impossible to fit even No Other Choice in, Park Chan-Wook’s (Oldboy, Decision to Leave) latest highly acclaimed black comedy masterwork. But despite that, The Voice of Hind Rajab and Sirāt are very welcome entries. The former being one of the most vital films of the decade so far, which blends documentary and narrative filmmaking to honor the memory of Hind Rajab, a 5-year-old girl trapped in a car in Gaza on the phone to Palestinian Red Crescent workers who are trying to save her. It’s devastating, and the decision to use the phone calls using her actual voice just amplifies the weight of the importance and reality of the work on display— making it easily the most heart-wrenching film I saw last year. And then the pulsating nihilism of Sirāt rounds out an incredible category— a rave set in the desert as the world of its subjects begins to crumble around them.

So who’s winning this one then? The momentum this season has been more in favour of The Secret Agent, having won the Golden Globe for not only International Film, but Best Actor for Wagner Moura as well. It also took home the Critics’ Choice Award. So that bodes extremely well for it. Sentimental Value won Best Foreign Language Film at the BAFTAs, but if we’re looking at precursors, The Secret Agent remains the favorite. I am picking Sentimental Value for the fact that it has nine Oscar nominations over Secret Agent’s four. So voters will likely lean towards the one who has received more love by their voting. Plus, it’s a movie about making movies. That always lands.

My personal favorite is It Was Just an Accident, Iranian master Jafar Panahi’s Palm d’Or winner about a group of survivors deciding on what to do with their captor, a man who may or may not be the one who tortured them all in prison. Considering what was happening even prior to the war in Iran, with protests and dissent setting in among its citizens (an occurrence that is happening more and more these days), I’m shocked it never got the momentum or push from NEON (its North American distributor) it so deserved. Especially considering it won the top prize at Cannes last year, something that led the charge for eventual Oscar winners in Anora and Parasite (NEON backed best picture winners). It’s another piece of potent Iranian filmmaking that confronts its oppressors and allows for its victims to take charge of not only their enemy’s fate, but their own as well.

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

What will win: KPop Demon Hunters

What could win: Zootopia 2

What should win: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

The animation category is often one of the most aggravating, as voters tend to still not take the medium of animation seriously, equating it to kids’ movies as opposed to a form that is far more than just that. The past two Oscars, however, have shown a nice uptick in voters taking the category and medium more seriously by rewarding more artful, grown-up works as opposed to whatever their kids liked, whatever is popular at the time. And whatever Pixar made (no shade as I love Pixar).  Flow, a no-budget, wordless Latvian film, won last year (a masterpiece, go watch it), and the year before that, Miyazaki won his second Oscar after Spirited Away for The Boy and the Heron (Studio Ghibli) - two films that are decidedly less the norm that is usually expected to win. But this year won’t be that year. Kpop Demon Hunters is just too massive of a cultural phenomenon, easily the biggest of any of the nominations across all categories this year, so it’s impossible not to see it take the prize. And although Zootopia 2 is now the highest-grossing animated film of all time, it still didn’t reach the same zeitgeist high as KPop did. It also helps when your film debuts on Netflix day 1 and is watched into oblivion by kids and their parents. Also, the songs are bloody great.

Arco is a visually stunning sci-fi adventure film, but my favorite in the category is without a doubt Little Amélie - a gorgeously animated little Belgian film about a little girl growing up in Japan that covers everything from identity to imagination to death and ultimately, to self-discovery. It’s a masterpiece and I’d be elated for a win, but the still fun as hell KPop will take it and I’m okay with that.

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees

Blue Moon (Robert Kaplow)

It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi)

Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie)

Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt)

Sinners (Ryan Coogler)

What will win: Sinners

What could win: Sentimental Value

What should win: Sentimental Value/Sinners

What should be here: No Other Choice (Park Chan-Wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Don McKellar, Lee Ja-hye), Weapons (Zach Cregger)

Ryan Coogler is all but guaranteed here, winning best original screenplay at the BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice Awards, and most importantly, the Writers’ Guild Awards. And you know what, it’s bloody well deserved. As mentioned before, it’s a wildly original film, and before you come at me with “But it’s a rip-off of From Dusk Till Dawn”, just remember that you can still take ideas and concepts that have existed before and put your own spin on them. Tarantino is the most guilty of that. Sure, it does borrow heavily from Dusk, but what it does here is actually create something that means so much more than just a group of people surviving vampires for the night. As mentioned before, it’s not just about one thing, but a multitude of different things that, depending on which angle you look at it, reveals more to its deceptively simple appearance. My only nitpick here is the writing of some of the dialogue, which often comes across as a horny 15-year-old writing it, but other than that, it’s worthy of the win. 

My personal choice though would be Sentimental Value. Its themes of generational trauma, confronting and healing the pains of the past through creating art, hit home for me. It’s portrayed and captured so powerfully on the screen because it’s so clear on the page.

One of my snubs is No Other Choice, which is a dark, but incredibly fun takedown of capitalism and its toxicity that has seeped into our daily lives. It’s actually mad that Park Chan-Wook, one of our finest living filmmakers, has still yet to be nominated for anything. Hopefully, he has a Parasite year soon.

The other omission that hurt my feelings is Weapons, the other smash horror from 2025 that deserves more love than just Amy Madigan’s nomination. It’s essentially a horror version of Magnolia that is smart, fun, and scary as hell. Arguably my favorite horror of 2025.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees

Bugonia (Will Tracy)

Frankenstein (Guillermo Del Toro)

Hamnet (Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao)

One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Train Dreams (Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar)

What will win: One Battle After Another

What could win: Hamnet

What should win: One Battle After Another/Hamnet

This one is a lock for the favorite. Like the original screenplay, PTA has won all the important precursor awards to earn that lock status, winning the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and Writers’ Guild. And considering how complicated it can be adapting Thomas Pynchon, it’s a deserved win from one of the finest writers in the industry. 

Hamnet is the only realistic spoiler to the party, Zhao collaborating with the novel’s author, Maggie O’Farrell, to adapt the non-linear structure of the book to a traditional linear form for the screen. This decision was vital and, thankfully, the correct one that lets the tragedy at the heart of the story hit even harder as we progress through their lives more naturally, letting us focus on the relationships rather than constantly trying to pinpoint where we are in the story. And if you had read the book, it adds an additional layer of doom to the film that rightfully feels inescapable, suffocating us as we gasp for air with Agnes and William. I’d be happy with either, but this one is certainly going to PTA. And depending on how the night goes for both Sinners and OBAA, both Coogler and PTA will walk away with at least one Oscar each.

Best Documentary Feature

The Nominees

The Alabama Solution

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting Through Rocks

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

The Perfect Neighbor

What will win: The Perfect Neighbor

What could win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

What should win: The Perfect Neighbor

What should be here: 2000 Meters to Andriivka, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

We know there’s legitimately no excuse for voters to not watch everything now considering they have access to everything via an online portal, but it always helps your case when your film is readily available. The Perfect Neighbor has that benefit and once the nominations dropped, its popularity on the charts spiked. It’s a great documentary that initially sells itself as yet another Netflix true crime doc, only to evolve into a film about social justice and unpacking of controversial “stand your ground” laws. It’s compelling, heartbreaking, and maddening. A perfect combination that will earn its win for best documentary. Mr. Nobody is the only other one I can see winning - a brave piece of filmmaking which had its author film it in secret as a member of staff at a school in Russia, documenting the sudden rise of militarization and propaganda at his school as the invasion in Ukraine begins. It would be funny if it weren’t so terrifying and depressing - a stark insight into the architecture of an authoritarian regime as it manipulates young minds that radicalizes them to do their bidding for the motherland.

Speaking about the war in Ukraine, 2000 Meters to Andriivka deserved a nomination - a frightening POV of war on the frontline as its filmmakers (as well as GoPros strapped to soldiers) battle for a vital strategic point in rural Ukraine. The same filmmakers won best documentary a few years ago with the equally horrifying 20 Days in Mariupol. But while that documents a city’s slow death at the behest of encroaching Russian forces, this one takes place entirely on the battlefield. A horrifying ordeal that hopefully most of us will never have to endure. But the documentary Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk is the one that I really feel should’ve made the cut. Told entirely through video call conversations, Iranian filmmaker Sepideh Farsi chats with a young photojournalist by the name of Fatima Hassouna living in Gaza, getting insight into life in Gaza as Israel starves and bombs the strip into oblivion. It’s one of the most important films of 2025 that needs to be seen - reminding us of the very human casualties that still grow in Gaza, even while Israel and the USA bomb Iran and Lebanon. Fatima Hassouna. Hind Rajab. Remember their names.

Best Cinematography 

The Nominees

Darius Khondji (Marty Supreme)

Autumn Durald (Sinners)

Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another)

Adolpho Veloso (Train Dreams)

Dan Laustsen (Frankenstein)

What will win: Sinners

What could win: One Battle After Another

What should win: Train Dreams/Sinners

One Battle is tipped as the favorite following its American Society of Cinematographers win for Best Cinematography. But of its 39-year existence, 18 winners have gone on to win Best Cinematography at the Oscars - a 46% chance with three of the last 6 having gone on to win. It also won the BAFTA. But I am going to go for Autumn Durald to win though. There has never been a female cinematographer winning an Oscar and I reckon this is the year the Academy will finally make it happen. Once again, all exceptionally realized with differing visual styles to accompany its characters’ journeys. I’d be very happy with her winning but I would love to see Train Dreams win, which in my opinion, is the most visually stunning film of the year, almost entirely utilized of natural lighting which makes the images you see even more breathtaking. It’s a dark horse spoiler to the party also thanks to its Critics’ Choice Awards win.

Best Production Design

The Nominees

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

What will win: Frankenstein

What could win: Hamnet

What should win: Frankenstein

Yeah this one is a certainty for Frankenstein. It won its category (period film), beating out Hamnet, Sinner and Marty Supreme at its guild awards. One Battle won for contemporary, but it won’t defeat Frankenstein. Hell, pretty much no film would ever really stand a chance against a Guillermo Del Toro film when it comes to this category.

Best Costume Design

The Nominees

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

What will win: Frankenstein

What could win: Hamnet

What should win: Frankenstein

Another easy win for Frankenstein, winning the period film category at the Costume Designers Guild Award where it competed against Hamnet and Sinners. Also, considering Sinners’ entire costume wardrobe was made up of unused pieces for a cancelled Blade film (I know, right?), it shouldn’t really win seeing as they were made for another film. A massive score to save money though…and it all looks bloody great.

Best Makeup and Styling

The Nominees

Frankenstein

Kokuho

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

The Ugly Stepsister

What will win: Frankenstein

What could win: Sinners

What should win: Frankenstein/The Smashing Machine

A third Oscar for Frankenstein thanks to the impressive transformation of Jacob Elordi into Frankenstein’s monster. It won at the makeup and hair stylist’s guild ceremony for best special make-up prosthetics. Sinners could be the upset though, winning for best period character make-up at the same awards. But Frankenstein should win. I would be happy to see The Smashing Machine win though - turning Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson into UFC icon Mark Kerr, leaving Dwayne Johnson completely unrecognizable and even more convincing in a performance that is more than just the prosthetics. It’s easily his most personal and best performance that has me excited for him to do more dramatic work because he proved he can do it here.

Best Editing

The Nominees

F1

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

What will win: One Battle After Another

What could win: Sinners

What should win: One Battle After Another

OK, so this category is way more important than people think. In order to win Best Picture, a writing and editing nod is vital in determining that. Only one film ever won without a nomination for either back in 1932 for the film Grand Hotel, and the last Best Picture winner without getting a win nom was Titanic back in 1997. So pay close attention to this category because whoever wins editing AND a Best Screenplay award (so a fight between Sinners and OBAA), will go on to win Best Picture. It happened last year with Anora and it’ll happen again. So my prediction for Best Picture could change once we know who wins this one in particular. Which will be OBAA that could propel it to win the main prize. The most deserving winner for me because the pacing is one of OBAA’s greatest strengths - never ever feeling as long as it does and constantly keeping things moving that is somehow breathless but still managing to let us catch our breaths. That final car chase sequence alone pretty much cements it as the winner. 

Best Visual Effects

The Nominees

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Jurassic World Rebirth

The Lost Bus

Sinners

What will win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

What could win: The Lost Bus

What should win: The Lost Bus

One of the least surprising categories that’ll get Avatar’s only win on the night. Although incredible visually, I still feel the Avatar films are basically animated movies now rather than live action with the addition of visual effects. But anyways, let’s move swiftly along.

Best Sound

The Nominees

F1

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Sirāt

What will win: F1

What could win: Sinners

What should win: Sirāt

What should be here: The Plague

Like editing, the sound category tends to be the one the Academy often has no clue how to determine, often leaning on flashiness to vote for the win. But like editing, sound design is the invisible art form that can either make or break a film. They create a specific sense of atmosphere, pace, etc. And although people are dragging F1’s presence in the best picture category (hey, I enjoyed the shit out of it, but a best picture nomination is legitimately ridiculous), the technical craft present throughout is outstanding, with sound being a very obvious one that made us feel like we were right there in the driver’s seat. 

I’d like to see a more subtle winner in Sirāt winning though, where the designers behind its aural design are that they let the desert feel like a character slowly encroaching on these characters. One that without realizing it, creates a sense of hopeless doom that you feel, rather than hear. As one character says to another while raving in the desert (and I’m paraphrasing), “You don’t listen to it, you feel it”. And Sirāt certainly made me feel it.

The Plague is a psychological horror film about a boy trying to fit in at a water polo camp. But rumors spread about a plague, a gross rash, that has infected one of the outsiders of the group. It’s a triggering experience of a film that is set amongst a very specific age group (pre-teens) as they assert societal pecking orders through mind games and tormenting. The sound feels like the inside of your head going through these changes, fighting conflicting feelings to join the herd or go on your own with the risk of the infection claiming you as well. It’s hard to explain, but its important marriage with the music makes that film an entirely different beast altogether. It even won its sound designer, Charlie Polinger, a special sound creation award at the 2025 edition of the Cannes Film Festival.

Best Original Score

The Nominees

Jerskin Fendrix (Bugonia)

Alexandre Desplat (Frankenstein)

Max Richter (Hamnet)

Jonny Greenwood (One Battle After Another)

Ludwig Göransson (Sinners)

What will win: Sinners

What could win: One Battle After Another

What should win: One Battle After Another/Sinners

What should be here: The Plague (Johan Lenox), The Testament of Ann Lee (Daniel Blumberg), Sirāt (Kangding Ray)

I mean at this point, it’s safe to say Ludwig Göransson is already an all-time great, which will make this his third Academy Award at just 41 years of age. The Swede will follow last year’s Oscar win for Oppenheimer with a guaranteed win that made normies listen to and appreciate not only the blues, but bluegrass and old Irish folk songs as well. It’s another element that makes Sinners such a surprising treat - a musical hiding under the guise of an action horror. If it were any other year, Jonny Greenwood would finally win an Oscar. The Radiohead guitarist has been collaborating with PTA since There Will Be Blood, a score which was considered ineligible for bullshit reasons and should’ve won him an Oscar. Here, the score is one of his weirdest to date - a character in itself that works in tandem with the editor as it dictates pace, anxiety, and uncertainty with each character it courts. God, that final car chase scene.

I mentioned The Plague in sound, and here, composer Johan Lenox utilizes the strangling effect of its sound design to create a guttural choir made up mostly of voices and no instruments - further creating an unsettling and incredibly hostile atmosphere ready to choke you out.

Sirāt also deserved a shoutout with its thumping, moody, and doomy techno score. The Academy tends to look at more traditional scores, so this was always going to miss out, especially when you see how Challengers from last year was left out (and should’ve won).

Best Original Song

The Nominees

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!

“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

What will win: Golden

What could win: I Lied to You

What should win: I Lied to You

Diane Warren’s fruitless residency at the Oscars continues. This’ll make it 17 nominations without a win. The most nominations for a songwriter without a win. She did, however, get an honorary Oscar in 2022, but let’s be real, it doesn’t really count. So that won’t change this year. Admittedly, this category is one I care about the least, to be honest. Rarely do songs feature that I really like, and it’s often a popularity contest as opposed to the actual best song (the irony is not lost on me that the Oscars themselves are often based on said popularity contests). But here’s my unpopular opinion: Golden is my least favorite song from the film, but it’s the one that was easily the biggest - charting and playing everywhere. So its familiarity and pop culture impact make it an easy pick to win - making it two for two for Demon Hunters, which means it’ll have the highest success rate of the night.

Personally, I’d pick I Lied to You. During the film’s most jaw-dropping set piece, the past, present (at least their present), and future merge together in a musical collage that brings together the main ideas teeming within Sinners. And it’s this song that brings it all together, making the film’s fascinating villain in Remmick appear to them. And boy is it a great song.

Best Live Action Short Film

The Nominees

Butcher’s Stain

Jane Austen’s Period Drama

A Friend of Dorothy

The Singers

Two People Exchanging Saliva

What will win: Two People Exchanging Saliva

What could win: The Singers

What should win: Two People Exchanging Saliva

The Singers has the Netflix bonus on its side, but this one I think will go to Two People Exchanging Saliva, and it bloody better get it as it’s far and away the best of the category. Set in a dystopian future where kissing is punishable by death and currency to purchase items is exchanged through slaps, it follows two women who become obsessed with each other - one a saleswoman at a high-end clothing store, the other her customer. Short film storytelling is incredibly hard to pull off, and this happens to be one of the best I’ve ever seen - brilliantly establishing its world of story, universally relevant themes, and organic character development all within a tight three-act structure that is pretty much perfect. A stunning piece of work that is available on YouTube, so easily accessible as well as being highly regarded by filmmakers like Alfonso Cuaron. Voters should pick it for the win.

Best Animated Short Film

The Nominees

Butterfly

Forevergreen

The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Retirement Plan

The Three Sisters

What will win: Butterfly

What could win: Retirement Plan

What should win: Retirement Plan

This is a category based entirely on gut feeling as well as what some critics are predicting. Based on the true story of Jewish Algerian swimming star and his surviving of the Holocaust, Butterly is beautifully hand-painted and its story of resilience and survival is an easy pick for voters, so it’ll likely win. But my favorite of the category is easily Retirement Plan. Narrated by Domhall Gleeson, a man plans his retirement that is told through a montage of the list he is making. Its animation is simple, its structure as well. But it hit me right in the feels. At just 7 minutes, it reminds us how we should never wait for our retirement years to finally live life and do all the things we always wanted to do. Because before you know it, it runs away from us, hoping we made use of all the free time we once had. Absolutely phenomenal.

Best Documentary Short Film

The Nominees

All the Empty Rooms

Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Children No More: Were and Are Gone

The Devil is Busy

Perfectly a Strangeness

What will win: All the Empty Rooms

What could win: The Devil is Busy

What should win: All the Empty Rooms

The Netflix doccie All the Empty Rooms is an extremely touching but tragic portrait of empty rooms left untouched by the parents of deceased school shooting victims. The Devil is Busy is another excellent entry, following the day in the life of an Atlanta abortion clinic. It’s a timely and important document of the hard and important work these frontline workers do and it could be a film that resonates enough with voters to pick it to win. But I still think All the Empty Rooms will win based purely on the sheer emotional impact its topic and its subjects have on the viewer. It being on Netflix benefits it massively as well.